2012 election

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Allow me to take the shrink wrap off of g0re.net's open thread on the 2012 presidential election.

What? Too soon? Check back in 14 months when we actually vote? :o

But like it or not, the election season is under way. For months, politicians have been out speechifying, raising money and strategizing. A semi-major contender, Tim Pawlenty, has already bowed out, no less than five solid months before the casting of the first caucus votes in Iowa.

The economy's in the toilet, Obama is increasingly wobbly and the country may well have a new president come January 2013.

Much of the focus right now is on Mike's buddy Rick Perry, who in true Texas tradition doesn't believe in climate change or evolution and thinks gay people are scary. It's crazy that people honestly are considering giving the Oval Office keys to yet another Texan so soon after the Bush debacle, but these are uncertain times. People do nutty things when they panic. If Republicans were smart they'd get behind Mitt Romney, who at least projects competence and doesn't fantasize out loud about causing bodily harm to the Fed chairman, like Perry has recently.

And these two aren't the only choices. There's Michele Bachmann, this cycle's Sarah Palin and a walking gaffe machine; creepy guy Rick Santorum, who really wishes everyone would stop Googling his name (go ahead and do it now); a long-past-his-prime Newt Gingrich; ex-Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain; cranky old dude Ron Paul; and Jon Huntsman, who thinks the way to win over conservative primary voters is by acting like the least-conservative person in the Republican Party (good luck with that).

But wait, there's more: Palin herself and Rudy Giuliani could still join in the fun. But it's hard to see how anyone whose name isn't Romney or Perry could wind up being the one to face off against Obama.

So it's a long time until Nov. 6, 2012. Get comfortable. "Nothing's riding on this except the, uh, first amendment to the Constitution, freedom of the press, and maybe the future of the country."
This is a snakeskin jacket. And for me it's a symbol of my individuality and my belief in personal freedom.

Re: 2012 election

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I wholeheartedly agree that people make crazy decisions in tough times, but I also think people stick with what they know in 'em too. If Obama does anything close to a decent job of reminding people of his accomplishments--and he does have some, although he should have more and he hasn't done a good job of publicizing them, which is kind of amazing considering what a great campaign he ran in '08--I suspect people will take the steady hand over the (and I'm being nice here) spectacular gamble that any of the Republican candidates offer. Much like in '04 I think incumbency, even when doubts are spreading across the nation about said incumbent, will trump a weak field of challengers.

At the end of the day, the Right has nothing to offer but "More tax cuts! More government program cuts!" and of course a host of social issue craziness that becomes increasingly dated, bizarre and simply wrong in the eyes of the general population. I don't think cutting government and taxes will sell as well as they think it will; we're at a turning point where some bold government programs to help people adjust their skills for the modern economy are needed, not more breaks so corporations and banks can sit on ever-larger piles of cash. I have been working in the IT industry from a jobs perspective since the mid 1990s, looking at all sorts of technologies and their influences, and believe a lot of our economic problems boil down to fundamental changes in the way the world operates moreso than any particular government policy. We have automated the shit out of many, many processes that used to be performed by both blue and white collar workers, the internet has rendered many things that used to be multi-billion dollar industries into casual freebies (news, music, etc), and none of the challengers will get anywhere close to addressing these facts over spewing simplistic platitudes about liberty, Reagan and tax cuts. Obama probably won't hit the mark either, but he will probably get a little closer.

Then again, maybe I'm just being an optimist, which is tough to do as a Democrat who is somewhat disillusioned with Obama's shaky job thus far--and let's be honest, a second term really only means 2 more potentially effective years, followed by the lame duck finale, so his accomplishment clock is ticking loudly even if he wins. Maybe the soundbites and the jobless numbers will carry the day for a flip-flopping Mormon or a habitually lying crazywoman from Minnesota or a real-life Greg Stillson from Texas. I have a father in law who is probably borderline genius as far as his engineering, artistic and overall problem solving skills, but he's become a drooling Tea Party rube with a blinding hatred for the colored guy in the White House since '08, and if he's anywhere close to representing the general voting public then we're in trouble. On the other hand, I have my moments when I look at the changes going on in the world thanks to technology or the environment or what have you and I do understand where people think the governmental systems in place simply aren't nimble enough to adapt to such major shifts, so I get why some people just get angry and say "throw the bums out! All of 'em!" Still, populations need to be governed, and a party that increasingly focuses on destroying government yet dictating how people live their lives on a day to day basis seems to make less sense than a party that tries to figure out how government can enrich lives and leave them alone on a day to day basis. I hope the majority understand that in '12, because you know Republicans will probably get another shot in '16 anyway.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. . . . I'm not a schemer. I just do things."

Re: 2012 election

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You're being an optimist. The one and only consistant voting trend is that people vote based on their economic fortunes. If times are good, the president can get us into foolish wars, do all manner of stupid things, and people will go with the status quo. If the economy is in the crapper, people will boot the ass of whomever's in office in some sort of vain hope that someone else can magically fix everything. Just ask Carter and HW Bush about that. If the economy still sucks on election day, or worse yet we go back into a recession, Obama can kiss his job goodbye. Rick Perry may seem crazy to us, but he's got a good spin machine and is outstanding at feeding people exactly what they want to hear. I can easily see him beating Obama if the economy is still down.
Just cut them up like regular chickens

Re: 2012 election

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I hit something of a turning point in the past week regarding Obama's job performance. Now, that doesn't at all mean that I'm going to suddenly support the Republicans, wish for a Democratic primary challenge or even stay at home on Election Day. I think he's a decent guy who genuinely has the nation's best interest at heart and he's vastly preferable to the alternatives.

That being said, it's hard to be anything but frustrated by all the unforced errors coming from the White House. Standoff with Boehner on when to hold this week's jobs speech? He caves. Tough EPA standards on smog? He caves. The whole debt-ceiling mess? Well, I'm not sure what all Obama got out of that, other than giving the Republicans yet another opportunity to hold the economy hostage this fall when the "supercommittee" that's supposed to find budget cuts fails. So I'll rate that one a "fail," too.

For the longest time I've felt that while Obama is uber cerebral, wonkish and dry, he's still the smartest guy — the poker player who keeps his cool and wins out in the end. But after months of drift at the White House... I have to ask, just what the hell is going on in there?
This is a snakeskin jacket. And for me it's a symbol of my individuality and my belief in personal freedom.

Re: 2012 election

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nod. which is exactly why i have zero interest in this bullshit. obama made me come around a bit and vote last time, thinking that a guy this smart, this seemingly stoic and not prone to being corrupt, and someone who was such an optimist and great speaker - not rehashing the same canned speeches and phrases we've heard for decades - might be able to make a difference. to me the only thing this administration has proven is that there is no way to change what happens in washington. one man - even at the highest level - will never be able to overcome the agenda of all that are under him in the system. this alleged democracy we have in place has completely failed. reminds me of the phrase "politics attracts the corruptible" - meaning, no decent person smart enough to see what's going on would be interested in being a politician. the elected officials serve no one but themselves and their own "special interests" - pet projects, etc., with their attentions being bought by lobbyists with the most money.

all the reasons we elected obama have been opposed at every step by the majority of those around him making him completely ineffectual. he won't come out and say it while he's in office but it's obvious. he has been able to accomplish nothing he intended to. i suppose it's possible that he had me completely fooled and that this was the intended result all along - we have someone in office who will put up a front of trying to enact change and "fighting the good fight", all the while knowing that it's a ruse and the end result of all this was pre-determined and that maybe the sole intent in getting him in office was to have four years where racial unrest is relatively quiet. after all, he is in politics. he might be a charlatan. but, i honestly don't think so.

our governmental system is such a sham. we are showing the rest of the world that democracy doesn't work.

Re: 2012 election

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TC wrote:nod. which is exactly why i have zero interest in this bullshit. obama made me come around a bit and vote last time, thinking that a guy this smart, this seemingly stoic and not prone to being corrupt, and someone who was such an optimist and great speaker - not rehashing the same canned speeches and phrases we've heard for decades - might be able to make a difference. to me the only thing this administration has proven is that there is no way to change what happens in washington. one man - even at the highest level - will never be able to overcome the agenda of all that are under him in the system. this alleged democracy we have in place has completely failed. reminds me of the phrase "politics attracts the corruptible" - meaning, no decent person smart enough to see what's going on would be interested in being a politician. the elected officials serve no one but themselves and their own "special interests" - pet projects, etc., with their attentions being bought by lobbyists with the most money.
Agreed. So why bother voting out Obama? It's not as if you're going to get anyone better.

Re: 2012 election

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TC probably exemplifies one of Obama's major hurdles this time around--he will not inspire voter turnout the way he did in 2008.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. . . . I'm not a schemer. I just do things."

Re: 2012 election

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The problem is, not voting for Obama ensures that even more crazies will get into power. While it's true he's been a disappointment as he doesn't appear to have a backbone, at least he's holding the line moderately well against the assault from the formerly fringe and sadly now mainstream right. It's easy to say they're all the same and it doesn't matter which you vote for so don't bother. But that's complete BS. There is a difference, and Obama, flawed as he is, is the only defense against the lunatic fringe fully running this country into the ground.
Just cut them up like regular chickens

Re: 2012 election

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I definitely lean in that direction. I think Obama came in with some starry-eyed ideas about what he could accomplish, got socked square between the eyes about the reality of the mess he inherited, jammed through what he could before the mid-terms and now has to deal with a Congress that will allow him to do nothing.

Since the Republican Party started actively courting the religious fringes of this country in the 1980s, the center has moved firmly into the Democratic Party. To reiterate what darkness said, flawed as they may be, I am increasingly convinced we have to vote for them to keep a dangerously selfish and unrealistic pack of morons out of positions of power.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. . . . I'm not a schemer. I just do things."

Re: 2012 election

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oh i agree, it just sucks. i mean yes, that buys us four more years of someone at least trying (albeit fruitlessly), but long term, we're demonstrating to the rest of them that we're going to need much better liars.

Re: 2012 election

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Someone's going to get elected no matter what, so I'm not sure it demonstrates anything really. Personally I'm holding out hope that once Obama is a lame duck president, he'll step up and put the GOP in their place. I don't think Obama's problem is so much that he's a liar, but rather that the political reality he's faced with from the right means he can't do much of anything without ruffling a lot of feathers. I don't think he counted on the rise to power of the lunatic fringe. I also think he gives the masses far too much credit when it comes to estimating their intelligence. For instance, with this jobs speech scheduling bit, I'm sure when he got the letter objecting he probably thought to himself: "Seriously? Who the fuck cares about something so trivial? Fine, we'll do it a night later." Because when pepole's wellbeing is at stake, it doesn't really matter whether he talks about it Wednesday or Thursday. And he's assuming most people are as smart and will so how silly that was. But unfortunately they're not, and something he caved on because to him it was stupid nitpicking, just feeds into the perception that he's weak and that the GOP "won" somehow. To him it's so unimportant it's not worth fighting about, but politcially it does matter. I don't think he's quite learned that yet.
With luck, free of worry about re-election, he shouldn't care what anyone thinks anymore and stop trying to be so nice. I want to see this Obama show up and tell the tea partiers where to stick it: http://www.lynchnet.com/OBAMA_IGNORANT.mp3
Just cut them up like regular chickens

Re: 2012 election

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for clarification - i'm not saying obama is a liar, i'm saying that he is setting a standard for future politicians as far as being a logical thinking man, which in turn means the future holds better liars. i'm assuming that obama is an anomaly and that 99.999% of other politicians that are already "in the system" for the "big two" parties are fucking liars spewing the same bullshit we've heard for decades. given the standard set by obama, they will need to be a hell of a lot better at lying to get elected.

Re: 2012 election

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jcdc wrote:It's a sad state of affairs when Rick Santorum is the only "sane" person running for the GOP.
I do have to ask how Google Problem comes out on top in the sane category here.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. . . . I'm not a schemer. I just do things."

Re: 2012 election

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TC wrote:for clarification - i'm not saying obama is a liar, i'm saying that he is setting a standard for future politicians as far as being a logical thinking man, which in turn means the future holds better liars. i'm assuming that obama is an anomaly and that 99.999% of other politicians that are already "in the system" for the "big two" parties are fucking liars spewing the same bullshit we've heard for decades. given the standard set by obama, they will need to be a hell of a lot better at lying to get elected.
I kind of look at it in a different light. He's a throwback. 40 years ago, you would be a lot more hard-pressed to find major differences between the parties; Nixon started the EPA for pete's sake. Even when there were bitter disagreements over important issues, both sides would get together for beers after the legislative session was out. Yes, they both "spewed the same bullshit," but there was scant evidence that either side was beholden to science-hating religious fanatics. Today, both sides continue to disappoint, but one of them at least makes attempts to base policy on scientific findings, logic, and actually making the governmental structure they're hired to run, run. The other defaults to vague platitudes about American Greatness at best, and currently follows the lead of loud, undereducated fiscal anarchists/social fascists. To me, the choice is far from great, but certainly clear.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. . . . I'm not a schemer. I just do things."

Re: 2012 election

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Perhaps not the perfect topic, but vaguely related: I watched a documentary on the Liquid Bomb Plot today, and it had the former head of the CIA interviewed at length in it. His disdain and downright disregard for foreign sovereignty couldn't have been any more blatant had he tried. He might as well have come out and said "Hey I don't care what happens to any other country, you best all just do what Amerikkka says!".

The British Security Services had the entire thing well under control - an execution time-line was well in place. We knew their time-line, so were going to wait for them to try and execute, when they had all the incriminating material with them, and arrest them properly. Some guy on the no-fly list - who had absolutely nothing to do with this plot (hey, the no-fly list is pretty big) managed to get on a plane to America. The CIA completely fucking flipped, forced the Pakistan ISI to arrest the head of the organization - which meant that if the UK cell found out, there was a very high risk that they would've blown their shit up right there and then, instead trying and failing to get on an aeroplane over the Atlantic. The former CIA head fucking LAUGHED on camera about doing it to force the British services to move ahead of schedule - they ended up being arrested by SURVEILLANCE teams instead of proper arrest teams, such was the fuck-up that the CIA caused our services. There were 20 cell members, and because of this premature action, only 8 saw jail time. Kicker? The head of the cell arrested in Pakistan "escaped" later. He was then "mysteriously killed" - IOW, CIA drone-sniped the guy (his "rebuttal" of this scenario was more of a confirmation that he could've managed had he just admitted it). Now I ain't into conspiracy bullshit one bit, but this guy just came out and fucking said it on camera for fuck sake.

Supposedly America's closest allies, they do this shit to us? Not only that, but the F-35 - you know, the JOINT Strike Fighter that's meant to replace our (now moth-balled-ahead-of-time due to a shitty Conservative government) Harrier fleet, probably wont see service here until at least 2020 because whatever branch of American government/military, wont let British engineers access critical specifications of the aircraft to customise it to our needs.

You know what? Obama might not be changing everything domestically that you might wish for, but he's the best thing that's happened to America's international image, because holy shit, nobody likes you over here (New York somehow gets a pass). :v:

(Not that we really like our own government right now but eh - I'd take Obama over David Cameron any day.)

Sometimes I wish that our Queen had more power, because fuck me, that woman don't take shit from nobody!

Re: 2012 election

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This is quite long, but eloquently summarizes what I've been saying above.
Goodbye to All That: Reflections of a GOP Operative Who Left the Cult
Saturday 3 September 2011

by: Mike Lofgren, Truthout | News Analysis



(Photo: Carolyn Tiry / Flickr [3])

Barbara Stanwyck: "We're both rotten!"

Fred MacMurray: "Yeah - only you're a little more rotten." -"Double Indemnity" (1944)

Those lines of dialogue from a classic film noir sum up the state of the two political parties in contemporary America. Both parties are rotten - how could they not be, given the complete infestation of the political system by corporate money on a scale that now requires a presidential candidate to raise upwards of a billion dollars to be competitive in the general election? Both parties are captives to corporate loot. The main reason the Democrats' health care bill will be a budget buster once it fully phases in is the Democrats' rank capitulation to corporate interests - no single-payer system, in order to mollify the insurers; and no negotiation of drug prices, a craven surrender to Big Pharma.

But both parties are not rotten in quite the same way. The Democrats have their share of machine politicians, careerists, corporate bagmen, egomaniacs and kooks. Nothing, however, quite matches the modern GOP.

To those millions of Americans who have finally begun paying attention to politics and watched with exasperation the tragicomedy of the debt ceiling extension, it may have come as a shock that the Republican Party is so full of lunatics. To be sure, the party, like any political party on earth, has always had its share of crackpots, like Robert K. Dornan or William E. Dannemeyer. But the crackpot outliers of two decades ago have become the vital center today: Steve King, Michele Bachman (now a leading presidential candidate as well), Paul Broun, Patrick McHenry, Virginia Foxx, Louie Gohmert, Allen West. The Congressional directory now reads like a casebook of lunacy.

It was this cast of characters and the pernicious ideas they represent that impelled me to end a nearly 30-year career as a professional staff member on Capitol Hill. A couple of months ago, I retired; but I could see as early as last November that the Republican Party would use the debt limit vote, an otherwise routine legislative procedure that has been used 87 times since the end of World War II, in order to concoct an entirely artificial fiscal crisis. Then, they would use that fiscal crisis to get what they wanted, by literally holding the US and global economies as hostages.

The debt ceiling extension is not the only example of this sort of political terrorism. Republicans were willing to lay off 4,000 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) employees, 70,000 private construction workers and let FAA safety inspectors work without pay, in fact, forcing them to pay for their own work-related travel - how prudent is that? - in order to strong arm some union-busting provisions into the FAA reauthorization.

Everyone knows that in a hostage situation, the reckless and amoral actor has the negotiating upper hand over the cautious and responsible actor because the latter is actually concerned about the life of the hostage, while the former does not care. This fact, which ought to be obvious, has nevertheless caused confusion among the professional pundit class, which is mostly still stuck in the Bob Dole era in terms of its orientation. For instance, Ezra Klein wrote [4] of his puzzlement over the fact that while House Republicans essentially won the debt ceiling fight, enough of them were sufficiently dissatisfied that they might still scuttle the deal. Of course they might - the attitude of many freshman Republicans to national default was "bring it on!"

It should have been evident to clear-eyed observers that the Republican Party is becoming less and less like a traditional political party in a representative democracy and becoming more like an apocalyptic cult, or one of the intensely ideological authoritarian parties of 20th century Europe. This trend has several implications, none of them pleasant.

In his "Manual of Parliamentary Practice," Thomas Jefferson wrote that it is less important that every rule and custom of a legislature be absolutely justifiable in a theoretical sense, than that they should be generally acknowledged and honored by all parties. These include unwritten rules, customs and courtesies that lubricate the legislative machinery and keep governance a relatively civilized procedure. The US Senate has more complex procedural rules than any other legislative body in the world; many of these rules are contradictory, and on any given day, the Senate parliamentarian may issue a ruling that contradicts earlier rulings on analogous cases.

The only thing that can keep the Senate functioning is collegiality and good faith. During periods of political consensus, for instance, the World War II and early post-war eras, the Senate was a "high functioning" institution: filibusters were rare and the body was legislatively productive. Now, one can no more picture the current Senate producing the original Medicare Act than the old Supreme Soviet having legislated the Bill of Rights.

Far from being a rarity, virtually every bill, every nominee for Senate confirmation and every routine procedural motion is now subject to a Republican filibuster. Under the circumstances, it is no wonder that Washington is gridlocked: legislating has now become war minus the shooting, something one could have observed 80 years ago in the Reichstag of the Weimar Republic. As Hannah Arendt observed, a disciplined minority of totalitarians can use the instruments of democratic government to undermine democracy itself.

John P. Judis sums up [5] the modern GOP this way:

"Over the last four decades, the Republican Party has transformed from a loyal opposition into an insurrectionary party that flouts the law when it is in the majority and threatens disorder when it is the minority. It is the party of Watergate and Iran-Contra, but also of the government shutdown in 1995 and the impeachment trial of 1999. If there is an earlier American precedent for today's Republican Party, it is the antebellum Southern Democrats of John Calhoun who threatened to nullify, or disregard, federal legislation they objected to and who later led the fight to secede from the union over slavery."

A couple of years ago, a Republican committee staff director told me candidly (and proudly) what the method was to all this obstruction and disruption. Should Republicans succeed in obstructing the Senate from doing its job, it would further lower Congress's generic favorability rating among the American people. By sabotaging the reputation of an institution of government, the party that is programmatically against government would come out the relative winner.

A deeply cynical tactic, to be sure, but a psychologically insightful one that plays on the weaknesses both of the voting public and the news media. There are tens of millions of low-information voters who hardly know which party controls which branch of government, let alone which party is pursuing a particular legislative tactic. These voters' confusion over who did what allows them to form the conclusion that "they are all crooks," and that "government is no good," further leading them to think, "a plague on both your houses" and "the parties are like two kids in a school yard." This ill-informed public cynicism, in its turn, further intensifies the long-term decline in public trust in government that has been taking place since the early 1960s - a distrust that has been stoked by Republican rhetoric at every turn ("Government is the problem," declared Ronald Reagan in 1980).

The media are also complicit in this phenomenon. Ever since the bifurcation of electronic media into a more or less respectable "hard news" segment and a rabidly ideological talk radio and cable TV political propaganda arm, the "respectable" media have been terrified of any criticism for perceived bias. Hence, they hew to the practice of false evenhandedness. Paul Krugman has skewered [6] this tactic as being the "centrist cop-out." "I joked long ago," he says, "that if one party declared that the earth was flat, the headlines would read 'Views Differ on Shape of Planet.'"

Inside-the-Beltway wise guy Chris Cillizza merely proves Krugman right in his Washington Post analysis of "winners and losers" in the debt ceiling impasse. He wrote [7] that the institution of Congress was a big loser in the fracas, which is, of course, correct, but then he opined: "Lawmakers - bless their hearts - seem entirely unaware of just how bad they looked during this fight and will almost certainly spend the next few weeks (or months) congratulating themselves on their tremendous magnanimity." Note how the pundit's ironic deprecation falls like the rain on the just and unjust alike, on those who precipitated the needless crisis and those who despaired of it. He seems oblivious that one side - or a sizable faction of one side - has deliberately attempted to damage the reputation of Congress to achieve its political objectives.

This constant drizzle of "there the two parties go again!" stories out of the news bureaus, combined with the hazy confusion of low-information voters, means that the long-term Republican strategy of undermining confidence in our democratic institutions has reaped electoral dividends. The United States has nearly the lowest voter participation among Western democracies; this, again, is a consequence of the decline of trust in government institutions - if government is a racket and both parties are the same, why vote? And if the uninvolved middle declines to vote, it increases the electoral clout of a minority that is constantly being whipped into a lather by three hours daily of Rush Limbaugh or Fox News. There were only 44 million Republican voters in the 2010 mid-term elections, but they effectively canceled the political results of the election of President Obama by 69 million voters.

This tactic of inducing public distrust of government is not only cynical, it is schizophrenic. For people who profess to revere the Constitution, it is strange that they so caustically denigrate the very federal government that is the material expression of the principles embodied in that document. This is not to say that there is not some theoretical limit to the size or intrusiveness of government; I would be the first to say there are such limits, both fiscal and Constitutional. But most Republican officeholders seem strangely uninterested in the effective repeal of Fourth Amendment protections by the Patriot Act, the weakening of habeas corpus and self-incrimination protections in the public hysteria following 9/11 or the unpalatable fact that the United States has the largest incarcerated population of any country on earth. If anything, they would probably opt for more incarcerated persons, as imprisonment is a profit center for the prison privatization industry, which is itself a growth center for political contributions to these same politicians.[1] Instead, they prefer to rail against those government programs that actually help people. And when a program is too popular to attack directly, like Medicare or Social Security, they prefer to undermine it by feigning an agonized concern about the deficit. That concern, as we shall see, is largely fictitious.

Undermining Americans' belief in their own institutions of self-government remains a prime GOP electoral strategy. But if this technique falls short of producing Karl Rove's dream of 30 years of unchallengeable one-party rule (as all such techniques always fall short of achieving the angry and embittered true believer's New Jerusalem), there are other even less savory techniques upon which to fall back. Ever since Republicans captured the majority in a number of state legislatures last November, they have systematically attempted to make it more difficult to vote: by onerous voter ID requirements (in Wisconsin, Republicans have legislated photo IDs while simultaneously shutting Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) offices in Democratic constituencies while at the same time lengthening the hours of operation of DMV offices in GOP constituencies); by narrowing registration periods; and by residency requirements that may disenfranchise university students.

This legislative assault is moving in a diametrically opposed direction to 200 years of American history, when the arrow of progress pointed toward more political participation by more citizens. Republicans are among the most shrill in self-righteously lecturing other countries about the wonders of democracy; exporting democracy (albeit at the barrel of a gun) to the Middle East was a signature policy of the Bush administration. But domestically, they don't want those people voting.

You can probably guess who those people are. Above all, anyone not likely to vote Republican. As Sarah Palin would imply, the people who are not Real Americans. Racial minorities. Immigrants. Muslims. Gays. Intellectuals. Basically, anyone who doesn't look, think, or talk like the GOP base. This must account, at least to some degree, for their extraordinarily vitriolic hatred of President Obama. I have joked in the past that the main administration policy that Republicans object to is Obama's policy of being black.[2] Among the GOP base, there is constant harping about somebody else, some "other," who is deliberately, assiduously and with malice aforethought subverting the Good, the True and the Beautiful: Subversives. Commies. Socialists. Ragheads. Secular humanists. Blacks. Fags. Feminazis. The list may change with the political needs of the moment, but they always seem to need a scapegoat to hate and fear.

It is not clear to me how many GOP officeholders believe this reactionary and paranoid claptrap. I would bet that most do not. But they cynically feed the worst instincts of their fearful and angry low-information political base with a nod and a wink. During the disgraceful circus of the "birther" issue, Republican politicians subtly stoked the fires of paranoia by being suggestively equivocal - "I take the president at his word" - while never unambiguously slapping down the myth. John Huntsman was the first major GOP figure forthrightly to refute the birther calumny - albeit after release of the birth certificate.

I do not mean to place too much emphasis on racial animus in the GOP. While it surely exists, it is also a fact that Republicans think that no Democratic president could conceivably be legitimate. Republicans also regarded Bill Clinton as somehow, in some manner, twice fraudulently elected (well do I remember the elaborate conspiracy theories that Republicans traded among themselves). Had it been Hillary Clinton, rather than Barack Obama, who had been elected in 2008, I am certain we would now be hearing, in lieu of the birther myths, conspiracy theories about Vince Foster's alleged murder.

The reader may think that I am attributing Svengali-like powers to GOP operatives able to manipulate a zombie base to do their bidding. It is more complicated than that. Historical circumstances produced the raw material: the deindustrialization and financialization of America since about 1970 has spawned an increasingly downscale white middle class - without job security (or even without jobs), with pensions and health benefits evaporating and with their principal asset deflating in the collapse of the housing bubble. Their fears are not imaginary; their standard of living is shrinking.

What do the Democrats offer these people? Essentially nothing. Democratic Leadership Council-style "centrist" Democrats were among the biggest promoters of disastrous trade deals in the 1990s that outsourced jobs abroad: NAFTA, World Trade Organization, permanent most-favored-nation status for China. At the same time, the identity politics/lifestyle wing of the Democratic Party was seen as a too illegal immigrant-friendly by downscaled and outsourced whites.[3]

While Democrats temporized, or even dismissed the fears of the white working class as racist or nativist, Republicans went to work. To be sure, the business wing of the Republican Party consists of the most energetic outsourcers, wage cutters and hirers of sub-minimum wage immigrant labor to be found anywhere on the globe. But the faux-populist wing of the party, knowing the mental compartmentalization that occurs in most low-information voters, played on the fears of that same white working class to focus their anger on scapegoats that do no damage to corporations' bottom lines: instead of raising the minimum wage, let's build a wall on the Southern border (then hire a defense contractor to incompetently manage it). Instead of predatory bankers, it's evil Muslims. Or evil gays. Or evil abortionists.

How do they manage to do this? Because Democrats ceded the field. Above all, they do not understand language. Their initiatives are posed in impenetrable policy-speak: the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The what? - can anyone even remember it? No wonder the pejorative "Obamacare" won out. Contrast that with the Republicans' Patriot Act. You're a patriot, aren't you? Does anyone at the GED level have a clue what a Stimulus Bill is supposed to be? Why didn't the White House call it the Jobs Bill and keep pounding on that theme?

You know that Social Security and Medicare are in jeopardy when even Democrats refer to them as entitlements. "Entitlement" has a negative sound in colloquial English: somebody who is "entitled" selfishly claims something he doesn't really deserve. Why not call them "earned benefits," which is what they are because we all contribute payroll taxes to fund them? That would never occur to the Democrats. Republicans don't make that mistake; they are relentlessly on message: it is never the "estate tax," it is the "death tax." Heaven forbid that the Walton family should give up one penny of its $86-billion fortune. All of that lucre is necessary to ensure that unions be kept out of Wal-Mart, that women employees not be promoted and that politicians be kept on a short leash.

It was not always thus. It would have been hard to find an uneducated farmer during the depression of the 1890s who did not have a very accurate idea about exactly which economic interests were shafting him. An unemployed worker in a breadline in 1932 would have felt little gratitude to the Rockefellers or the Mellons. But that is not the case in the present economic crisis. After a riot of unbridled greed such as the world has not seen since the conquistadors' looting expeditions and after an unprecedented broad and rapid transfer of wealth upward by Wall Street and its corporate satellites, where is the popular anger directed, at least as depicted in the media? At "Washington spending" - which has increased primarily to provide unemployment compensation, food stamps and Medicaid to those economically damaged by the previous decade's corporate saturnalia. Or the popular rage is harmlessly diverted against pseudo-issues: death panels, birtherism, gay marriage, abortion, and so on, none of which stands to dent the corporate bottom line in the slightest.

Thus far, I have concentrated on Republican tactics, rather than Republican beliefs, but the tactics themselves are important indicators of an absolutist, authoritarian mindset that is increasingly hostile to the democratic values of reason, compromise and conciliation. Rather, this mindset seeks polarizing division (Karl Rove has been very explicit that this is his principal campaign strategy), conflict and the crushing of opposition.

As for what they really believe, the Republican Party of 2011 believes in three principal tenets I have laid out below. The rest of their platform one may safely dismiss as window dressing:

1. The GOP cares solely and exclusively about its rich contributors. The party has built a whole catechism on the protection and further enrichment of America's plutocracy. Their caterwauling about deficit and debt is so much eyewash to con the public. Whatever else President Obama has accomplished (and many of his purported accomplishments are highly suspect), his $4-trillion deficit reduction package did perform the useful service of smoking out Republican hypocrisy. The GOP refused, because it could not abide so much as a one-tenth of one percent increase on the tax rates of the Walton family or the Koch brothers, much less a repeal of the carried interest rule that permits billionaire hedge fund managers to pay income tax at a lower effective rate than cops or nurses. Republicans finally settled on a deal that had far less deficit reduction - and even less spending reduction! - than Obama's offer, because of their iron resolution to protect at all costs our society's overclass.

Republicans have attempted to camouflage their amorous solicitude for billionaires with a fog of misleading rhetoric. John Boehner is fond of saying, "we won't raise anyone's taxes," as if the take-home pay of an Olive Garden waitress were inextricably bound up with whether Warren Buffett pays his capital gains as ordinary income or at a lower rate. Another chestnut is that millionaires and billionaires are "job creators." US corporations have just had their most profitable quarters in history; Apple, for one, is sitting on $76 billion in cash, more than the GDP of most countries. So, where are the jobs?

Another smokescreen is the "small business" meme, since standing up for Mom's and Pop's corner store is politically more attractive than to be seen shilling for a megacorporation. Raising taxes on the wealthy will kill small business' ability to hire; that is the GOP dirge every time Bernie Sanders or some Democrat offers an amendment to increase taxes on incomes above $1 million. But the number of small businesses that have a net annual income over a million dollars is de minimis, if not by definition impossible (as they would no longer be small businesses). And as data from the Center for Economic and Policy Research have shown, small businesses account for only 7.2 percent of total US employment, a significantly smaller share of total employment than in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

Likewise, Republicans have assiduously spread the myth that Americans are conspicuously overtaxed. But compared to other OECD countries, the effective rates of US taxation are among the lowest. In particular, they point to the top corporate income rate of 35 percent as being confiscatory Bolshevism. But again, the effective rate is much lower. Did GE pay 35 percent on 2010 profits of $14 billion? No, it paid zero.

When pressed, Republicans make up misleading statistics to "prove" that the America's fiscal burden is being borne by the rich and the rest of us are just freeloaders who don't appreciate that fact. "Half of Americans don't pay taxes" is a perennial meme. But what they leave out is that that statement refers to federal income taxes. There are millions of people who don't pay income taxes, but do contribute payroll taxes - among the most regressive forms of taxation. But according to GOP fiscal theology, payroll taxes don't count. Somehow, they have convinced themselves that since payroll taxes go into trust funds, they're not real taxes. Likewise, state and local sales taxes apparently don't count, although their effect on a poor person buying necessities like foodstuffs is far more regressive than on a millionaire.

All of these half truths and outright lies have seeped into popular culture via the corporate-owned business press. Just listen to CNBC for a few hours and you will hear most of them in one form or another. More important politically, Republicans' myths about taxation have been internalized by millions of economically downscale "values voters," who may have been attracted to the GOP for other reasons (which I will explain later), but who now accept this misinformation as dogma.

And when misinformation isn't enough to sustain popular support for the GOP's agenda, concealment is needed. One fairly innocuous provision in the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill requires public companies to make a more transparent disclosure of CEO compensation, including bonuses. Note that it would not limit the compensation, only require full disclosure. Republicans are hell-bent on repealing this provision. Of course; it would not serve Wall Street interests if the public took an unhealthy interest in the disparity of their own incomes as against that of a bank CEO. As Spencer Bachus, the Republican chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, says [8], "In Washington, the view is that the banks are to be regulated and my view is that Washington and the regulators are there to serve the banks."

2. They worship at the altar of Mars. While the me-too Democrats have set a horrible example of keeping up with the Joneses with respect to waging wars, they can never match GOP stalwarts such as John McCain or Lindsey Graham in their sheer, libidinous enthusiasm for invading other countries. McCain wanted to mix it up with Russia - a nuclear-armed state - during the latter's conflict with Georgia in 2008 (remember? - "we are all Georgians now," a slogan that did not, fortunately, catch on), while Graham has been persistently agitating for attacks on Iran and intervention in Syria. And these are not fringe elements of the party; they are the leading "defense experts," who always get tapped for the Sunday talk shows. About a month before Republicans began holding a gun to the head of the credit markets to get trillions of dollars of cuts, these same Republicans passed a defense appropriations bill that increased spending by $17 billion over the prior year's defense appropriation. To borrow Chris Hedges' formulation [9], war is the force that gives meaning to their lives.

A cynic might conclude that this militaristic enthusiasm is no more complicated than the fact that Pentagon contractors spread a lot of bribery money around Capitol Hill. That is true, but there is more to it than that. It is not necessarily even the fact that members of Congress feel they are protecting constituents' jobs. The wildly uneven concentration of defense contracts and military bases nationally means that some areas, like Washington, DC, and San Diego, are heavily dependent on Department of Defense (DOD) spending. But there are many more areas of the country whose net balance is negative: the citizenry pays more in taxes to support the Pentagon than it receives back in local contracts.

And the economic justification for Pentagon spending is even more fallacious when one considers that the $700 billion annual DOD budget creates comparatively few jobs. The days of Rosie the Riveter are long gone; most weapons projects now require very little touch labor. Instead, a disproportionate share is siphoned off into high-cost research and development (from which the civilian economy benefits little); exorbitant management expenditures, overhead and out-and-out padding; and, of course, the money that flows back into the coffers of political campaigns. A million dollars appropriated for highway construction would create two to three times as many jobs as a million dollars appropriated for Pentagon weapons procurement, so the jobs argument is ultimately specious.

Take away the cash nexus and there still remains a psychological predisposition toward war and militarism on the part of the GOP. This undoubtedly arises from a neurotic need to demonstrate toughness and dovetails perfectly with the belligerent tough-guy pose one constantly hears on right-wing talk radio. Militarism springs from the same psychological deficit that requires an endless series of enemies, both foreign and domestic.

The results of the last decade of unbridled militarism and the Democrats' cowardly refusal to reverse it[4], have been disastrous both strategically and fiscally. It has made the United States less prosperous, less secure and less free. Unfortunately, the militarism and the promiscuous intervention it gives rise to are only likely to abate when the Treasury is exhausted, just as it happened to the Dutch Republic and the British Empire.

3. Give me that old time religion. Pandering to fundamentalism is a full-time vocation in the GOP. Beginning in the 1970s, religious cranks ceased simply to be a minor public nuisance in this country and grew into the major element of the Republican rank and file. Pat Robertson's strong showing in the 1988 Iowa Caucus signaled the gradual merger of politics and religion in the party. The results are all around us: if the American people poll more like Iranians or Nigerians than Europeans or Canadians on questions of evolution versus creationism, scriptural inerrancy, the existence of angels and demons, and so forth, that result is due to the rise of the religious right, its insertion into the public sphere by the Republican Party and the consequent normalizing of formerly reactionary or quaint beliefs. Also around us is a prevailing anti-intellectualism and hostility to science; it is this group that defines "low-information voter" - or, perhaps, "misinformation voter."

The Constitution to the contrary notwithstanding, there is now a de facto religious test for the presidency: major candidates are encouraged (or coerced) to "share their feelings" about their "faith" in a revelatory speech; or, some televangelist like Rick Warren dragoons the candidates (as he did with Obama and McCain in 2008) to debate the finer points of Christology, with Warren himself, of course, as the arbiter. Politicized religion is also the sheet anchor of the culture wars. But how did the whole toxic stew of GOP beliefs - economic royalism, militarism and culture wars cum fundamentalism - come completely to displace an erstwhile civilized Eisenhower Republicanism?

It is my view that the rise of politicized religious fundamentalism (which is a subset of the decline of rational problem solving in America) may have been the key ingredient of the takeover of the Republican Party. For politicized religion provides a substrate of beliefs that rationalizes - at least in the minds of followers - all three of the GOP's main tenets.

Televangelists have long espoused the health-and-wealth/name-it-and-claim it gospel. If you are wealthy, it is a sign of God's favor. If not, too bad! But don't forget to tithe in any case. This rationale may explain why some economically downscale whites defend the prerogatives of billionaires.

The GOP's fascination with war is also connected with the fundamentalist mindset. The Old Testament abounds in tales of slaughter - God ordering the killing of the Midianite male infants and enslavement of the balance of the population, the divinely-inspired genocide of the Canaanites, the slaying of various miscreants with the jawbone of an ass - and since American religious fundamentalist seem to prefer the Old Testament to the New (particularly that portion of the New Testament known as the Sermon on the Mount), it is but a short step to approving war as a divinely inspired mission. This sort of thinking has led, inexorably, to such phenomena as Jerry Falwell once writing that God is Pro-War [10].

It is the apocalyptic frame of reference of fundamentalists, their belief in an imminent Armageddon, that psychologically conditions them to steer this country into conflict, not only on foreign fields (some evangelicals thought Saddam was the Antichrist and therefore a suitable target for cruise missiles), but also in the realm of domestic political controversy. It is hardly surprising that the most adamant proponent of the view that there was no debt ceiling problem was Michele Bachmann, the darling of the fundamentalist right. What does it matter, anyway, if the country defaults? - we shall presently abide in the bosom of the Lord.

Some liberal writers have opined that the different socio-economic perspectives separating the "business" wing of the GOP and the religious right make it an unstable coalition that could crack. I am not so sure. There is no fundamental disagreement on which direction the two factions want to take the country, merely how far in that direction they want to take it. The plutocrats would drag us back to the Gilded Age, the theocrats to the Salem witch trials. In any case, those consummate plutocrats, the Koch brothers, are pumping [11] large sums of money into Michele Bachman's presidential campaign, so one ought not make too much of a potential plutocrat-theocrat split.

Thus, the modern GOP; it hardly seems conceivable that a Republican could have written the following:

"Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are H. L. Hunt (you possibly know his background), a few other Texas oil millionaires and an occasional politician or business man from other areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid." (That was President Eisenhower, writing to his brother Edgar in 1954.)

It is this broad and ever-widening gulf between the traditional Republicanism of an Eisenhower and the quasi-totalitarian cult of a Michele Bachmann that impelled my departure from Capitol Hill. It is not in my pragmatic nature to make a heroic gesture of self-immolation, or to make lurid revelations of personal martyrdom in the manner of David Brock [12]. And I will leave a more detailed dissection of failed Republican economic policies to my fellow apostate Bruce Bartlett [13].

I left because I was appalled at the headlong rush of Republicans, like Gadarene swine, to embrace policies that are deeply damaging to this country's future; and contemptuous of the feckless, craven incompetence of Democrats in their half-hearted attempts to stop them. And, in truth, I left as an act of rational self-interest. Having gutted private-sector pensions and health benefits as a result of their embrace of outsourcing, union busting and "shareholder value," the GOP now thinks it is only fair that public-sector workers give up their pensions and benefits, too. Hence the intensification of the GOP's decades-long campaign of scorn against government workers. Under the circumstances, it is simply safer to be a current retiree rather than a prospective one.

If you think Paul Ryan and his Ayn Rand-worshipping colleagues aren't after your Social Security and Medicare, I am here to disabuse you of your naiveté.[5] They will move heaven and earth to force through tax cuts that will so starve the government of revenue that they will be "forced" to make "hard choices" - and that doesn't mean repealing those very same tax cuts, it means cutting the benefits for which you worked.

During the week that this piece was written, the debt ceiling fiasco reached its conclusion. The economy was already weak, but the GOP's disgraceful game of chicken roiled the markets even further. Foreigners could hardly believe it: Americans' own crazy political actions were destabilizing the safe-haven status of the dollar. Accordingly, during that same week, over one trillion dollars worth of assets evaporated on financial markets. Russia and China have stepped up their advocating that the dollar be replaced as the global reserve currency - a move as consequential and disastrous for US interests as any that can be imagined.

If Republicans have perfected a new form of politics that is successful electorally at the same time that it unleashes major policy disasters, it means twilight both for the democratic process and America's status as the world's leading power.

Footnotes:

[1] I am not exaggerating for effect. A law passed in 2010 by the Arizona legislature mandating arrest and incarceration of suspected illegal aliens was actually drafted by the American Legislative Exchange Council, a conservative business front group that drafts "model" legislation on behalf of its corporate sponsors. The draft legislation in question was written for the private prison lobby, which sensed a growth opportunity in imprisoning more people.

[2] I am not a supporter of Obama and object to a number of his foreign and domestic policies. But when he took office amid the greatest financial collapse in 80 years, I wanted him to succeed, so that the country I served did not fail. But already in 2009, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, declared that his greatest legislative priority was - jobs for Americans? Rescuing the financial system? Solving the housing collapse? - no, none of those things. His top priority was to ensure that Obama should be a one-term president. Evidently Senator McConnell hates Obama more than he loves his country. Note that the mainstream media have lately been hailing McConnell as "the adult in the room," presumably because he is less visibly unstable than the Tea Party freshmen

[3] This is not a venue for immigrant bashing. It remains a fact that outsourcing jobs overseas, while insourcing sub-minimum wage immigrant labor, will exert downward pressure on US wages. The consequence will be popular anger, and failure to address that anger will result in a downward wage spiral and a breech of the social compact, not to mention a rise in nativism and other reactionary impulses. It does no good to claim that these economic consequences are an inevitable result of globalization; Germany has somehow managed to maintain a high-wage economy and a vigorous industrial base.

[4] The cowardice is not merely political. During the past ten years, I have observed that Democrats are actually growing afraid of Republicans. In a quirky and flawed, but insightful, little book, "Democracy and Populism: Fear and Hatred [14]," John Lukacs concludes that the left fears, the right hates.

[5] The GOP cult of Ayn Rand is both revealing and mystifying. On the one hand, Rand's tough guy, every-man-for-himself posturing is a natural fit because it puts a philosophical gloss on the latent sociopathy so prevalent among the hard right. On the other, Rand exclaimed at every opportunity that she was a militant atheist who felt nothing but contempt for Christianity. Apparently, the ignorance of most fundamentalist "values voters" means that GOP candidates who enthuse over Rand at the same time they thump their Bibles never have to explain this stark contradiction. And I imagine a Democratic officeholder would have a harder time explaining why he named his offspring "Marx" than a GOP incumbent would in rationalizing naming his kid "Rand."

"I'm like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. . . . I'm not a schemer. I just do things."

Re: 2012 election

19
News tonight: Sarah Palin says she won't seek the Republican nomination. She also says a third-party bid would ensure Obama's re-election.

Chris Christie reiterated this week that he, too, won't seek the nomination. Barring a late entry from Rudy Giuliani (about as likely as me winning the Powerball), it is clear that Obama's opponent will come from the already-announced candidates.

At this point, it looks like Mitt's game to lose. I'd say his biggest threat is a Rick Perry who suddenly learns how to form sentences in what we like to refer to as the English language. A perhaps more likely scenario has Ron Paul and Huntsman siphoning off enough support to deny Romney a clear win in New Hampshire, sparking a chain reaction of people turning away from the Mittster. The Republicans could limp their way through primary season with no obvious victor. (Sounds like fun.)
This is a snakeskin jacket. And for me it's a symbol of my individuality and my belief in personal freedom.

Re: 2012 election

20
All the decent candidates are waiting for 2016 when they'll have a clear shot, they really are a mess considering this should be a winnable year for an opposition candidate.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. . . . I'm not a schemer. I just do things."